December 3, 2019 by Alessandra Salgado and Francisco Boshell, via Energy Post
IRENA is predicting the future of liquid biofuels by monitoring the number and technology-type of patents. It’s not looking good. The first thing to note is that, after a promising rise, the total number of patents has slid from over 6,000 in 2011 to around 2,500 in 2017. That’s reflected in the dramatic fall in global biofuel investments, from $27bn in 2007 to $2bn in 2017. The likely main cause is a lack of stable regulation, say Alessandra Salgado and Francisco Boshell at IRENA. The warning is apt. Today, global production is 130bn litres/year. This needs to triple by 2030 and rise five-fold by 2050 to 650bn litres/annum to meet the Paris goals. That’s because liquid biofuels are marked as an important substitute for hard-to-decarbonise sectors like freight, shipping, and aviation; these transport modes currently account for over 12% of total global energy-related CO2 emissions. Many technologies already exist (e.g. biofuels produced from lignocellulosic feedstock, municipal waste, and waste oils, fats or algae) but the pathways to meeting their full potential is still far from clear. The authors run through the technologies and countries involved.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) foresees that advanced liquid biofuels have a role to play in meeting the Paris Agreement goals, which aim to limit the rise in average global temperatures to “well below” two degrees Celsius (2oC).
Advanced liquid biofuels – biofuels produced from lignocellulosic feedstock, municipal waste, and waste oils, fats or algae with a smaller impact in terms of land-use – are currently a viable option to decarbonise some energy use sectors, particularly some applications in the transport sector that cannot yet be electrified in a cost-effective way, namely freight, shipping, and aviation. These transport modes currently account for over 12% of total global energy-related CO2 emissions. However, according to patent data, biofuel innovation trends have slowed in the recent years, drawing potential challenges to their development, commercialisation and widespread deployment.